Predictions of a Global Climate Change on Jupiter and Implications for Earth

Philip S. Marcus

Department of Mechanical Engineering
Center for Theoretical Astrophysics
Center for Integrative Planetary Studies
UC Berkeley

Abstract-
Using simple ideas of vortices and their interactions, we predict an imminent, dramatic change in the jovian climate as part of a 70-year cycle. As part of this change most of Jupiter's large vortices, similar to (but not including) the Great Red Spot, will soon disappear due to vortex mergers. This will cause global temperature changes of 10 degrees which will de-stabilize the atmosphere. As a result, within a decade, several of Jupiter's westward jet streams (there are 12) will form waves. We predict the waves will grow, break, roll-up and re-populate Jupiter with new vortices. These dynamics should be visible from earth as the break-up of a circumferential band of clouds into "spots'", and the predicted temperature change should be observable in the IR by ground-based telescopes. Our predictions are based on fundamental vortex dynamics, the chaotic advection of heat by semi-stable patterns of vortices, and the consequences of disrupting the patterns. Earth also has semi-stable, and easily disruptable, configurations of vortices that control a variety of phenomena, ranging from the steering winds for North Atlantic hurricanes to the dipole pair responsible for the recurring seasonal Aegean winds.


GALCIT Home Page
2004-2005 Fluids Seminar Page


Maintained by: James Faddy
EMail: James Faddy
Last modified: September 21, 2004